Viewpoint - Viewpoint

So the tired old war story continues, as many continue to Dread the upcoming mass exodus of the Baby Boomer. What? I am sorry, are we missing something? The mass exodus really wont’ have an impact? How so? *¹

Well, I decided to try the impossible today, to keep my comments simple, especially for those who just Aren’t getting it.

The Echo Boomers

• The Largest Boom Generation we have in recorded history are now entering the work force. This generation is called the Echo Boomers as they are the offspring and demographic echo of the Baby Boomers
• Yes Folks they have already entered school, graduated, and even working
• This generation is between 1980 – 1990+ and there are close to 90 Million of them. Yes folks that is even more than the Baby boomers – they make up 27.5 percent of the population.

People in the Labor Force

• Baby Boomers cannot afford to retire and over 85 Percent have reported (AARP) that they will be postponing retirement
• Baby Boomers Are expected to ALL retire in the year 2030 – My granddaughter will be in the workplace, and may even have her own child by then! Yes, that Echo Generation will definitely be able to help compensate for sure.
• Let’s go back to that 2030 number. We are talking 22 years from Now/ Wow, by then the advancement in technology seems so amazing, one would even say that people would be living longer, and healthier. This adds to the retirement age, as well as to the population. The US economy has ALWAYS grown faster than it’s workforce.
• But advancement in Technology means that there would also be less people needed for certain jobs (remember the automobile line and machines) , as technology makes it less work for each person
• China and India, two of the most populated countries in the world will continue to have growth, and we shall continue to see many of their citizens emigrate here in the U.S

Economy

• For some time now, for a Very long time actually – the unemployment numbers have been skewered. The figures kept saying unemployment near 4-5 Percent in spite of the continual drop in Payrolls. If one were to look at the Real Numbers, Payroll numbers, we would see that Jobs Per Thousand have actually shown that there were less Americans working than acknowledged. This is Called Long Term Unemployment. The DOL, has taken to call these people discouraged workers. I call them the Forgotten People. In 2006 the Demographics of the long-term unemployed – Over 35+, middle to high income, white collared worker. Today, we are seeing blue collared workers also becoming prevalent in those demographics

Per Businessweek:

If the percentage of Americans participating in the workforce were the same now as it was in 2000, the number officially counted as unemployed would be 9.1 million, rather than 7.1 million. The unemployment rate would be 5.8%, instead of 4.6%. (Sept 2007)

• Ah folks, we are in a recession, and we are Now publicly hearing that there are less jobs in the economy. We have less jobs entering the economy per week (greatly) than we have people entering the economy (per week)
• Outsourcing will continue to happen and with outsourcing comes
• As the economy continues to be threatened, more and more people will work more than one job to help compensate. This is has been a prevalent trend with the last two generations
• If there really was a war for talent, wouldn’t companies have raised wages here in America a long time ago to attract the great talent, instead of outsourcing the work for mediocre labor? See Consumer Reports An Accident Waiting to happen (Outsourcing Raises Air Safety Concerns March 2007)
• We have talented experienced individuals here in America, but, yet, we outsource it for peanuts, and then say we want better education. Sorry, if there were a War for talent, companies would be doing everything in their power to attract that Great Talent. Better wages, paying for education, health care, better retirement. Not.. You get the picture.

Something to chew on – Inflation has been raised more than 2000 Percent (Two thousand) yet, salaries and minimum wages well, can anyone remember when there was last a minimum wage raise? Was that not about 20 years ago nationally? Back in the 70’s one could buy a House on ONE YEARS salary.. today, a husband and Wife can barely make the Down payment for a home; pay for child support; Pay for Education; pay for their own health benefits (companies used to provide that, back in the good old day) and of course put a percentage away for retirement, not to mention emergencies? According to a recent Pew Survey

……men who were in their thirties in 1974 had median incomes of about $40,000, while men of the same age in 2004 had median incomes of about $35,000 (adjusted for inflation). These data challenge the two-century-old presumption that each successive generation will be better off than the one that came before. The findings rely on new analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. Is the American Dream Alive and Well?

Education

This is the biggest argument for the labor shortage, but can also be mixed into the other three categories.

• The baby boomer generation is and has been and continues to be the most educated Generation, at 25 Percent. That includes many of the Very Educated Stay at home Moms. Many of the individuals who make up the baby boomers wealthiest are actually NOT College educated as many have thought, and earned their stripes through the road more travelled.
• More Kids today are going to school, but less are graduating. Maybe we need to ease up on this criteria??
• The kids who do graduate are forced to live with mommy and daddy as they can’t afford to pay their education, pay their bills, and they are sure not making the salaries that their parents used to make (adjusted for inflation) – In fact the college kid today is The most indebted generation in modern history. See: “College debts and broken dreams” (MSN Money), The Education-Jobs Gap: Underemployment or Economic Democracy by D. W. Livingstone, Created Unequal: The Crisis in American Pay by James K. Galbraith

In 1976, Richard Freeman wrote a book called “The Overeducated American.” So many Americans had been getting college degrees that the relative wages of white-collar professionals had started to fall. It no longer paid to go to college and, for most of the ’70s, fewer people did. Just so, incomes of the educated began to rise again.

People like Freeman, a labor-market economist, waited for the cycle to turn. They expected that with white-collar types riding high again, more people would stay in school, and incomes at the top would level off once more.

But they never did. Instead, the rich kept getting richer. Across the spectrum of American society, the higher your income category, the more your income continued to grow. And for a quarter-century, albeit with zigs and zags along the way, that rich-get-richer pattern has held. (NY Times)

So here we go again in America – we are Over Educated and Under Employed, with Great Debt, and Not enough jobs to go around. No, there really isn’t a war for talent, but more a WAR FOR EMPLOYMENT!

This is it. Hope it was as interesting for you to read, as it was for me to compile the information.

* 1 (For accuracy please note that this series was originally written in during the years of 2006-2008

See also 
Part One of the series   There is no (pending) labor shortage! Get over it   

Puhlease Stop saying that there is a war for talent 2 

War for Talent: Fact vs Fiction Part 3

----------------------------------------------------

ABOUT KAREN MATTONEN, CAC, CSP

Karen Mattonen started a career in Human Resources when she served as a Recruiter for Snelling Corporation. Leveraging her tenure with Snelling, Karen founded Advanced Career Solutions in 1997 focusing on the  HVAC and Mechanical Construction industry. Her reputation for excellence is echoed in the satisfaction of clients and candidates she has serviced nationwide. Furthermore, Karen is esteemed for sharing her expertise in Recruitment Education, Ethics and promoting self-regulation for the Recruiting industry.

She has a new and future-oriented vision of what recruiting can and should become: a profession we can be proud of for its ethical standing, professional conduct and ability to build great organizations. Her doing-well-by-doing-right philosophy is shaking up the status quo in an industry that needs to be shaken. She does this with conviction, leadership, and a distinctive voice that cries out for change.

Outside of the HR community, Karen Mattonen has been cited by Microsoft as a resource in how to use Microsoft Outlook as an ATS. She has also served as the Marketing and Public Relations Director for the 3^rd largest city in Utah.

Her passionate and tireless advocacy has led her to create HireCentrix - The Pulse of H.R, Regulation, Retention, Recruiting and Risk Management www.hirecentrix.com.  Hirecentrix is a company dedicated to providing training to the HR, recruiting and staffing industries, which includes a special focus on the ethical and legal dimensions through offering a full service resource for individuals to share and communicate, obtain current and accurate information, acquire and provide education and learning within the quickly expanding, diverse and rapidly changing Recruiting and Human Resource climate.

Karen has achieved accreditation as a California Accredited Consultant (CAC) through California Staffing Professionals. She has also gained her Certified Staffing Professional Certificate (CSP) through American Staffing Professionals. (www.americanstaffing.net)

Click here to reach Karen via email.

##

Comments: